鉅亨台北資料中心 (來源:富盛投顧) 2015-06-17 10:05 

目前所有的投資評論都離不開聯準會何時升息、升息幅度多大、升息速度多快,但這些都不是重點,因為多數投資人並沒有投資聯邦基金利率期貨。過去幾年來,投資基準利率期貨的波動性很低,但報酬率也很低。低利率環境與量化寬鬆政策令投資人心生「除了現金,投資什麼都好」的心態。聯準會升息的效應不會影響那些基準利率期貨的投資人,但其他的資產類別將無一倖免。「除了現金,投資什麼都好」的投資心態,令投資人遠離潛在的暴風圈,以前手握現金就滿足的投資人,如今持有3年期債券;原先投資短天期債券的人,如今則持有5年期債券;原本投資5年期債券的人,開始往10年期債券靠攏,就這樣持續下去,直到背負的到期日風險超出自己的所能承的擔極限。
為什麼到期日風險這麼重要?首先,中天期的殖利率曲線相當平緩,因此拉長到期日並不會帶來太多的額外報酬:多承擔20年的風險,只會增加0.75%的殖利率而已。為什麼會有這樣的情況?因為每個投資人都湧入相同的投資標的!從基本的供需原理來看,許多人渴求投資收益,願意拉長到期日來實現收益目標。因此,對發債機構而言,根本沒有什麼必要為投資人提供額外的誘因。
其次,到期日拉的越長,隨之而來的痛苦與快樂也就越大。過去幾年來,隨著殖利率下降、債券價格上升,投資人享受極大的快樂,痛苦微乎其微。除了少部分的「異類」,大多數投資人無不為此著迷,且過去的美好記憶總令人流連忘返。分手、很難。

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BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Boom!

Stock markets around the world soared yesterday. The Dow jumped more than 300 points.

News out of Europe says they’re working on a fix to resolve the crisis there. Reports here say the holiday season may be off to a strong start. Sales on “Black Friday” may have hit a record.

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..There's a great mismatch between the way people feel about the economy and many of the underlying trends. The sentiment says recession, but much of the underlying data suggest growth.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment, released Friday morning, showed consumer confidence fell and that consumers' expectations for the future are at their lowest level in 30 years. They're not the only ones worried. Lakshman Achuthan of Economic Cycle Research Institute, perhaps the most reliable forecaster on changes in the business cycle, recently told the Daily Ticker he believes a recession is unavoidable.

And yet the numbers continue to tell the story of a grinding, continuing recovery that, in some ways, appears to be accelerating. Amid the rising gloom, the data flow in recent weeks has generally been positive. Retail sales, reported this morning, were up strongly in September, up 1.1 percent from August; August's figure was revised upwards. Compared with a year ago, retail sales are up 8 percent. They were led by strong car sales. After putting up a bagel in August, the economy added 103,000 payroll jobs in September, including 137,000 private sector positions. Overall GDP growth, which fell dangerously close to flatlining in the first quarter, in which it grew at just a .4 percent annual rate, grew at a 1.3 percent rate in the second quarter. Macroeconomic Advisers, which tracks and continually updates estimates in real time with each new data point, currently has the third quarter expanding at a 2.7 percent rate. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index pushes higher every month.

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(Reuters) - Apple Inc shares dipped nearly 3 percent in early trading on Monday after an analyst said the iPhone maker is cutting orders from suppliers of parts for its iPad tablet.

JPMorgan Chase said in the research note that several suppliers indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders by 25 percent.

"Our understanding is that this is not in preparation for a new model launch," said Gokul Hariharan, JP Morgan's Asia Pacific electronic manufacturing services analyst.

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ATHENS — Sitting in the modest living room of the home she shares with her parents, husband and two teenage children, Stella Firigou fretted about how the family would cope with the uncertainties of an economy crashing all around them. But she was adamant about one thing: she would not pay a new property tax that was the centerpiece of a new austerity package announced this month by the Greek government.

“I’m not going to pay it,” Ms. Firigou, 50, said matter-of-factly, as she lighted a cigarette and checked her ringing cellphone to avoid calls from her bank about late payments on a loan. “I can’t afford to pay it. They can take me to jail.”

While banks and European leaders hold abstract talks in foreign capitals about the impact of a potential Greek default on the euro and the world economy, something frighteningly concrete is under way in Greece: the dismantling of a middle-class welfare state in real time — with nothing to replace it.

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Ben Rooney, On Friday August 19, 2011, 10:15 am
European leaders are under intense pressure to come up with a long-term solution to the debt problems straining the European Union to its breaking point.

But given the enormous challenges involved and the unpalatable options available to them, few analysts expect EU policymakers to announce any meaningful changes soon.

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by Matthew Lynn
Wednesday, August 17, 2011

With German growth stumbling, Europe has little margin for error

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Taylor Swift - Sparks Fly

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It is a parallel that is seducing Wall Street bankers and investors: 2011 as a repeat of 2008, the history of financial turmoil playing in one endless loop.

As a big fund manager muttered darkly this past weekend while heading into the office to prepare for a tumultuous Monday, "The sense of déjà vu is almost sickening."

Those who think of 2011 as "2008 -- The Sequel" now have their very own "Lehman moment." Just substitute Friday's historic downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's for the collapse of the investment bank in September 2008, et voilà, you have a carbon copy of an event that made the unthinkable happen and spooked markets around the globe.

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以中藥材煮的夏日輕飲茶,可調理過敏性體質的患者,民眾不妨自己在家動手DIY。


◎夏日輕飲茶作法:

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中醫世界│首頁

作者:石原結實

有關疾病的原因=污染血液的原因,可分為六種(吃太多、缺乏運動、壓力、受涼、環境污染物質、水分攝取過量),如果再整理起來,可以整理成二種。

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如果有一種藥物吃了能活一百二十歲,相信大家一定會去買。這種藥物是有的,並且我們每個人都可以得到,它就是少吃點。
科學家通過對猴子限食的試驗證明了這一點。讓100只猴子隨它吃飽,另外100只猴子只吃七八分飽,定量供應。
結果,隨它吃飽的100只猴子過一段時間死了50只,另外只吃七八分飽的猴子長得既苗條又健康,還很少生病,10年養下來才死12只。
少吃點為什麼能長壽,科學家分析有以下原因:
一、少吃點能減輕腸胃負擔。人體過多攝取蛋白質和脂肪,使消化系統負擔過重,易導致消化不良。

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Sub tset()
MsgBox Chr(34) & "帶雙引號的提示內容" & Chr(34), vbInformation, Chr(34) & "帶雙引號的標題" & Chr(34)
End Sub
有時候我們要用到英文的雙引號,有時候"""來代表一個 " 並不好使,那麼用chr(34)吧

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pina 股市

PCHome

股之龍投資模擬網

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allway sync有30天檔案同步數量限制,用FreeFileSync(正體中文版)來代替 Save-CoCo 心得筆記

freefilesync

Areca Backup 可以增量備份的免費軟體(超省備份空間) Save-CoCo 心得筆記

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