- Aug 11 Fri 2017 08:55
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港澳旅遊的網址
- Jul 06 Mon 2015 08:07
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美國升息、債券基金該如何調整？還是只能祝你好運！
鉅亨台北資料中心 (來源：富盛投顧) 2015-06-17 10:05
目前所有的投資評論都離不開聯準會何時升息、升息幅度多大、升息速度多快，但這些都不是重點，因為多數投資人並沒有投資聯邦基金利率期貨。過去幾年來，投資基準利率期貨的波動性很低，但報酬率也很低。低利率環境與量化寬鬆政策令投資人心生「除了現金，投資什麼都好」的心態。聯準會升息的效應不會影響那些基準利率期貨的投資人，但其他的資產類別將無一倖免。「除了現金，投資什麼都好」的投資心態，令投資人遠離潛在的暴風圈，以前手握現金就滿足的投資人，如今持有3年期債券；原先投資短天期債券的人，如今則持有5年期債券；原本投資5年期債券的人，開始往10年期債券靠攏，就這樣持續下去，直到背負的到期日風險超出自己的所能承的擔極限。
為什麼到期日風險這麼重要？首先，中天期的殖利率曲線相當平緩，因此拉長到期日並不會帶來太多的額外報酬：多承擔20年的風險，只會增加0.75%的殖利率而已。為什麼會有這樣的情況？因為每個投資人都湧入相同的投資標的！從基本的供需原理來看，許多人渴求投資收益，願意拉長到期日來實現收益目標。因此，對發債機構而言，根本沒有什麼必要為投資人提供額外的誘因。
其次，到期日拉的越長，隨之而來的痛苦與快樂也就越大。過去幾年來，隨著殖利率下降、債券價格上升，投資人享受極大的快樂，痛苦微乎其微。除了少部分的「異類」，大多數投資人無不為此著迷，且過去的美好記憶總令人流連忘返。分手、很難。
而且，歷史經驗也會讓你不願分手。傳統的升息週期，常使得殖利率曲線趨平，意味著即便各天期的殖利率都上升，但以現金加權的角度來看，短天期殖利率上升的幅度較大，意即表現也遜於長天期債券。2004年，聯準會升息的同時（見下表），30年期公債殖利率下降，締造了一段輝煌時光，這也是為什麼最近的新聞媒體都認為未來殖利率曲線將再度「趨平」。
- Nov 30 Wed 2011 05:56
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10 reasons the crisis isn’t over
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Boom!
Stock markets around the world soared yesterday. The Dow jumped more than 300 points.
News out of Europe says they’re working on a fix to resolve the crisis there. Reports here say the holiday season may be off to a strong start. Sales on “Black Friday” may have hit a record.
So, is that it? Is the crisis over? Is it time to ramp up your equity exposure, take on more risk?
Heavens. Anything can happen. And, OK, there are stocks out there that look pretty decent value.
- Oct 14 Fri 2011 23:59
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[轉貼] Why The Economy Looks Like Expansion, Feels Like Recession
..There's a great mismatch between the way people feel about the economy and many of the underlying trends. The sentiment says recession, but much of the underlying data suggest growth.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment, released Friday morning, showed consumer confidence fell and that consumers' expectations for the future are at their lowest level in 30 years. They're not the only ones worried. Lakshman Achuthan of Economic Cycle Research Institute, perhaps the most reliable forecaster on changes in the business cycle, recently told the Daily Ticker he believes a recession is unavoidable.
And yet the numbers continue to tell the story of a grinding, continuing recovery that, in some ways, appears to be accelerating. Amid the rising gloom, the data flow in recent weeks has generally been positive. Retail sales, reported this morning, were up strongly in September, up 1.1 percent from August; August's figure was revised upwards. Compared with a year ago, retail sales are up 8 percent. They were led by strong car sales. After putting up a bagel in August, the economy added 103,000 payroll jobs in September, including 137,000 private sector positions. Overall GDP growth, which fell dangerously close to flatlining in the first quarter, in which it grew at just a .4 percent annual rate, grew at a 1.3 percent rate in the second quarter. Macroeconomic Advisers, which tracks and continually updates estimates in real time with each new data point, currently has the third quarter expanding at a 2.7 percent rate. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index pushes higher every month.
So what's going on? Is all the data fudged? Is it simply backward-looking information telling us a positive story? I think of it as follows: The grind-it-out recovery continues. The underlying trends are moving in a positive direction, in many instances better than most people think and expect. But there's an overwhelming sense of fragility due to three significant factors.
First and foremost, there's the weak labor market. Go back and look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics' depressing monthly employment market update. It's not simply that the unemployment rate is at an elevated 9.1 percent, or that the U-6, a broader measure of un- and underemployment, is at 16.5 percent. Rather, the equation between management and labor has shifted drastically in the past several years. Simply put, capital is beating the living daylights out of labor. Personal income fell in August from July. Corporate profits bounced back impressively since 2009, but between June 2009 and June 2011, real household median income fell 6.7 percent. Workers' share of income has fallen to historic lows. (Check out this chart, courtesy of Mark Thoma at Economists' View).
- Sep 26 Mon 2011 23:13
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[轉貼] Apple down on report of iPad supply slowdown
(Reuters) - Apple Inc shares dipped nearly 3 percent in early trading on Monday after an analyst said the iPhone maker is cutting orders from suppliers of parts for its iPad tablet.
JPMorgan Chase said in the research note that several suppliers indicated in the past two weeks that Apple lowered fourth-quarter iPad orders by 25 percent.
"Our understanding is that this is not in preparation for a new model launch," said Gokul Hariharan, JP Morgan's Asia Pacific electronic manufacturing services analyst.
The move could result in slower sales for suppliers like Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, the analyst added.
Apple shares were down $12 at $392.30 on Nasdaq.
- Sep 25 Sun 2011 23:14
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[轉貼] Worried Greeks Fear Collapse of Middle Class Welfare State
ATHENS — Sitting in the modest living room of the home she shares with her parents, husband and two teenage children, Stella Firigou fretted about how the family would cope with the uncertainties of an economy crashing all around them. But she was adamant about one thing: she would not pay a new property tax that was the centerpiece of a new austerity package announced this month by the Greek government.
“I’m not going to pay it,” Ms. Firigou, 50, said matter-of-factly, as she lighted a cigarette and checked her ringing cellphone to avoid calls from her bank about late payments on a loan. “I can’t afford to pay it. They can take me to jail.”
While banks and European leaders hold abstract talks in foreign capitals about the impact of a potential Greek default on the euro and the world economy, something frighteningly concrete is under way in Greece: the dismantling of a middle-class welfare state in real time — with nothing to replace it.
Since 2010, the government has raised taxes and slashed pensions and state salaries across the board, in an effort to rein in the bloated public sector that today employs one in five Greeks. Last week, the government announced it would put 30,000 workers on reduced pay as a precursor to possible termination and would cut pensions again for nearly half a million public-sector retirees.
A clerk in her local town hall, Ms. Firigou, like all public-sector workers, took a precipitous pay cut last year — in her case to less than $1,300 a month from $2,000 a month — as the government slashed wages to meet the terms of its foreign lenders. Her husband, who sells used car parts, has seen his commissions drop. Her mother’s pension was cut to about $800 a month from around $920.
- Aug 19 Fri 2011 22:27
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[轉貼] Euro debt crisis: 'No solution in sight'
Ben Rooney, On Friday August 19, 2011, 10:15 am
European leaders are under intense pressure to come up with a long-term solution to the debt problems straining the European Union to its breaking point.
But given the enormous challenges involved and the unpalatable options available to them, few analysts expect EU policymakers to announce any meaningful changes soon.
"There is no solution to the Euroland's sovereign debt crisis in sight," said Carl Weinberg, an economist at High Frequency Economics. "Markets will continue to be fundamentally unstable and volatile as long as we can think."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave it their best shot on Tuesday.
- Aug 17 Wed 2011 23:00
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[轉貼] Germany Will Lead the Global Downturn
by Matthew Lynn
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
With German growth stumbling, Europe has little margin for error
There has been no shortage of shocks for the market in the past few weeks. The U.S. has lost its triple-A rating. Italy is struggling to stay in the euro. The French banks are running into trouble because of the loans they have made to the continent's peripheral countries.
But in fact none of those should have surprised anyone much. The U.S. had been running up too much debt for a couple of decades and the dollar was already on the way out as a reserve currency. The Italians struggled to stay in the lira — no one expected them to survive in the euro without a few problems. And it would hardly qualify as a financial crisis if the French banks weren't losing money. Each of those events was about as unexpected as Andy Murray getting knocked out of Wimbledon in the semi-finals.
- Aug 17 Wed 2011 21:31
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來自網路的影音
- Aug 09 Tue 2011 22:38
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[轉貼] Why This Crisis Differs From the 2008 Version
It is a parallel that is seducing Wall Street bankers and investors: 2011 as a repeat of 2008, the history of financial turmoil playing in one endless loop.
As a big fund manager muttered darkly this past weekend while heading into the office to prepare for a tumultuous Monday, "The sense of déjà vu is almost sickening."
Those who think of 2011 as "2008 -- The Sequel" now have their very own "Lehman moment." Just substitute Friday's historic downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's for the collapse of the investment bank in September 2008, et voilà, you have a carbon copy of an event that made the unthinkable happen and spooked markets around the globe.
They got the last part right. Investors looked decidedly spooked on Monday with Asian and European bourses down sharply and the Dow tumbling 643.76 points, or more than 5%.
[More from WSJ.com: Downgrade Ignites a Global Selloff ]
- Jul 20 Wed 2011 07:12
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[轉貼] 夏日輕飲茶 材料作法大公開
以中藥材煮的夏日輕飲茶，可調理過敏性體質的患者，民眾不妨自己在家動手DIY。
◎夏日輕飲茶作法：
●紫蘇烏梅茶
材料：紫蘇1.5錢、烏梅1錢、陳皮1.5錢、麥冬2錢。
作法：1000cc水，水滾後加材料，以小火煮10至15分鐘。
- Jul 04 Mon 2011 22:38
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[轉貼]污染血液的主要因素是什麼？
中醫世界│首頁
作者：石原結實
有關疾病的原因=污染血液的原因，可分為六種(吃太多、缺乏運動、壓力、受涼、環境污染物質、水分攝取過量)，如果再整理起來，可以整理成二種。
包含人類在內的所有動物，在癌症、感冒或肺炎等發炎症狀、大腦梗塞或心肌梗塞發作後疼痛劇烈等等，疾病相當嚴重的時候，或是非常疲勞的時候，一定都會產生「食慾不振」和「發燒」兩種症狀。
其實不管是「食慾不振」還是「發燒」，都是可以提升免疫力的。就像前面所說的一樣，在血液中自由活動的白血球這種單細胞生物，主動吞噬、處理異物(廢棄物、有毒物質、病原菌、過敏原等等......)的能力，就是符合基本定義的「免疫力」。
